XRP saw three major trends in its price, the first one being bullish (till 2017), the second one a beaten down (2018 to 2024) but neutral and the third one which has again turned it into a bull (since late 2024).
XRP has seen one of the worst price movements in history, first because of the unregulated and unrecognized nature of crypto markets and then due to the case against XRP by the SEC, which forced its price to stay down from 2020 to 2024. This price remained down even when XRP won two cases against the SEC, one decisively and one with a $125 million fine.
However, a breakout occurred in November 2024 which took XRP’s price above its past near term high of $0.88.
Phase 1
Phase 1: Till 2017
Trend:
XRP experienced minimal price activity during its early years, with the price largely hovering around fractions of a cent. It started gaining traction in 2017.
Key Influencing Factors:
- Early Adoption: XRP was created in 2012 by Ripple Labs to enable fast cross-border payments. Its low price reflected the early stage of cryptocurrency adoption.
- Low Market Interest: Bitcoin dominated the crypto market, and altcoins like XRP were not widely recognized.
- Ripple Partnerships: Ripple began forming partnerships with banks and financial institutions, which slowly drew attention to XRP’s use case.
2017 to 2018: The Bull Run
Trend:
XRP saw explosive growth, rising from about $0.006 in early 2017 to an all-time high of ~$3.84 in January 2018. This period was marked by extreme volatility.
Key Influencing Factors:
- Wider Crypto Adoption: The overall crypto market saw a massive influx of retail and institutional investors.
- Ripple’s Partnerships: Ripple announced key collaborations with financial institutions (e.g., Santander, American Express), fueling speculation about XRP’s utility.
- Speculation Frenzy: Market hype led to speculative buying. However, much of the rise was unrelated to XRP’s real-world usage.
- Market Correction: The bubble burst in early 2018, leading to a sharp decline in XRP’s price alongside other cryptocurrencies.
Phase 2
Dec 2018 to Nov 2020
- Trend:
XRP entered a prolonged bearish trend. The price ranged between $0.25 and $0.50, with minor rallies. By late 2020, it reached ~$0.60. - Key Influencing Factors:
- Bear Market: The entire crypto market suffered a downturn after the 2018 bubble burst.
- SEC Uncertainty: Concerns about regulatory clarity for XRP in the U.S. emerged, creating bearish sentiment.
- Ripple’s Developments: Despite negative price trends, Ripple expanded its partnerships, particularly in Asia (e.g., SBI Holdings).
- Limited Adoption of XRP: While RippleNet saw growth, actual use of XRP in on-demand liquidity (ODL) solutions remained limited.
Nov 2020 to June 2022: Regulatory and Market Volatility
Macroeconomic Factors: Rising inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical uncertainty negatively impacted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Trend:
XRP’s price dropped sharply in late 2020 after the SEC lawsuit announcement but staged a recovery in 2021, peaking at ~$1.96 in April 2021 during the broader crypto rally. It then declined in 2022 amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Key Influencing Factors:
- SEC Lawsuit: In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple, alleging XRP was an unregistered security. This led to delisting on major exchanges, including Coinbase, causing a price crash to ~$0.17. SEC claimed a $2 billion in fine which exceeded the original sales value i.e., $1.3 billion. It also saw delisting from analytics tools like Into The Block.
- Crypto Bull Market 2021: XRP participated in the overall crypto market rally, driven by institutional adoption and mainstream interest in crypto. The institutional gains stemmed from XRPL’s usage to digitize land records in Colombia, JP Morgan’s usage of XRP for cross-border transfers, etc.
- Ripple’s Legal Defense: Ripple’s strong legal defense and court rulings in its favor boosted investor confidence in 2021 and 2022.
June 2022 to Nov 2024
Trend:
These years proved essentially bearish for XRP as it was the focus of all the anti-crypto stance of SEC. Both XRP and SEC were locked into a long-term legal battle where XRP finally prevailed.
All these time, its price was pinned around $0.5. Even when it won the case, its price went up to $0.88 but soon came down crashing as the markets saw SEC pursue another case against Ripple on the institutional sales.
XRP prevailed in this case too, where the District Court of Southern District of New York (SDNY) reduced SEC’s penalty from $2 billion to $125 million. The SEC has appealed again but is likely to lose the case before it moves to trial.
Key Influencing Factors:
- SEC’s Cases and Appeal: Despite several gains like institutional adoption, the SEC’s case pinned XRP down to the range near $0.5.
Phase 3
Nov 2024 to Present
Trend:
XRP saw an outbreak from $0.5 to $0.65 as Donald Trump won on 6 Nov 2024.
The next breakout came on 6 Nov 2024 when XRP crossed $0.88 and then $1 as a result of the resulting momentum.
Key Influencing Factors:
- Trump’s Win: Donald Trump is expected to usher a new era of crypto regulation ending the several cases the SEC pursued against different crypto companies.
- Lack of Substance in SEC’s Appeal: Though the SEC has appealed against the decision of the SDNY court, yet it is very less likely that the case will survive in the appellate court because the appeal does not add any new fact. It just reiterates what SEC believes to be it’s domain without any evidence or legal provision to back it.
